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New Yorkers will learn who will be their next mayor this election day, in a contest that will decide who runs and protects the country's most populous metropolis at a moment when the former president has threatened to send armed forces to the city.

In this context, New York has experienced a race for mayor that has pitted two distinctly opposing Democrats against each other. The election has turned into an acrimonious showdown, marked by alleged racial bias and anti-Muslim sentiment, but it is the ideological divide between the two leading contenders that could have significant consequences for how the party fares in next year's midterm elections.

The Progressive Challenger

In the progressive corner is Zohran Mamdani, the young progressive candidate whose meteoric rise and grassroots campaign has brought international attention. On the establishment side is the former governor, the former Democratic New York governor now campaigning independently – and benefiting from the support of ultra-rich donors and big business.

With days to go, it is the progressive, the former longshot who defeated his opponent in the Democratic primary who is firmly installed as the leading candidate. The candidate, who has run on a agenda of affordability and promised to freeze rent for about two million New Yorkers, has led his rival by significant margins across all surveys conducted in the fall, and it is very much the progressive's election to throw away.

A Bitter Contest

Yet, Cuomo, who resigned as the state's leader in recent years amid accusations of misconduct, has made it clear he will battle to the finish, and not necessarily in an fair manner. He has criticized his opponent's objectives as unachievable, and in the final stretch laughed as a radio host made Islamophobic remarks about the candidate, who is Muslim. Recently, the independent was widely condemned as racist after posting an AI-generated ad that included a series of racist stereotypes and showed his opponent freeing a group of criminals.

This represents a particularly ugly conclusion to an election that could be key to the path that the Democratic party, struggling in its response to the former president's authoritarian grabs, takes in the near future.

National Implications

If the progressive wins convincingly, the party establishment who have refused to endorse his bid will be forced to reckon with a message that has resonated with Americans' frustration at economic disparity, soaring price rises and the political elite. It would be hard for Chuck Schumer and Hakeem Jeffries not to adopt at least a portion of the candidate's progressive proposals about affordability, given the newcomer has generated an enthusiasm within the Democratic ranks arguably not seen since Bernie Sanders campaigned for the White House in 2016.

Conversely, should the former governor, who had been predicted to win easily in the Democratic primary, complete a surprising riches-to-rags-to-riches win, it could cement the party's existing approach of considered, uninspiring resistance – a strategy that has infuriated the party base. A NYC defeat of Mamdani's optimistic platform could convince Schumer and Jeffries that the best plan is to remain in the center – even as polls show the present version of the Democratic party is widely disliked across the country.

Campaign Energy

Residents of the city appear to favor the Mamdani vision. Polls show that his backers are much more excited about their candidate than Cuomo backers, something that has been apparent throughout the campaign. Mamdani's snappy videos on digital platforms, his hopeful outlook for the city and his readiness to actually venture out and meet people in the city has drawn an force of more than 50,000 volunteers, many of them youth or first-time voters.

Negative Tactics

However, the former governor, in his late sixties, continues to fight. And with the risks stacked against him, the ex-leader has turned to ugly messaging in the final days.

Following extensive throwing basically everything at his opponent to see what might resonate, the independent has concentrated on attacking Mamdani directly. He has labelled his rival, who was of Ugandan origin to Indian parents, an “extremist”, and appeared on conservative media for an interview with Maria Bartiromo, where the candidate asserted the city “will not survive” his opponent as city leader. It hit bottom last week, when the former governor laughed along and said “that’s another problem” after a broadcaster said the candidate would “cheer” another 9/11-style incident.

Political Landscape

The line of attack echoes much of what Trump, who has deployed the military reserves to Washington DC and warned to take similar action to New York, has said about Mamdani, and perhaps that is expected. A group of wealthy residents, including some who contributed to the Republican in the 2024 election, have invested heavily into trying to elect Cuomo into office, as other influential figures have urged the Republican candidate to withdraw from the contest.

Candidate Backgrounds

As far as the Cuomo camp, and his billionaire supporters, are concerned, it should never have come to this. When Mamdani, one of one hundred fifty state legislators, launched his campaign for mayor in last year, not many had known him, and in reality, barely anyone even noticed.

Cuomo, by comparison, eased his way into the contest in March 2025 and became the immediate frontrunner. He was the political heavyweight who apparently held all the advantages. The quintessential establishment figure, he had married a Kennedy and served in a Democratic presidency. He assumed office as the state's leader in 2011, seventeen years after his father, the former governor, left office from the same position.

The progressive, who was voted in to the New York state assembly in 2020, does not have the comparable background. But his dedication to providing free buses and affordable child services – along with the rent control promise – present a more positive vision of the future than his opponent's dire warnings about “mayhem” and rising criminal activity, and his promise to hire more police officers.

Recent Challenges

Still, Mamdani has encountered difficulties in recent days, after video surfaced appearing to show him implying the NYPD and the IDF were intertwined.

“We have to make clear that when the pressure of the NYPD is on your neck, it’s been influenced by the IDF,” Mamdani said in the recording, filmed at a DSA gathering in 2023. The progressive, a longtime critic of the Israeli government who has said the nation is committing genocide in Gaza, indicated he was questioning joint training exercises between the city police and Israeli forces.

Emotional Response

With the election nearing, the candidate appears to have won empathy and backing, however, for his reaction to Cuomo’s escalating attacks.

Mamdani responded to Cuomo’s 9/11 remarks in an emotional video. In it, the candidate recalled how, when he first campaigned for state assembly, a Muslim uncle advised to him that he did not have to disclose about his religion. It was a lesson, Mamdani said, that many Muslim New Yorkers had been told “again and again”: “That security could only be found in the shadows of our community. That it is in those shadows alone where Muslims could express their full identities, and that if we were to emerge from those shadows, then it is in those shadows that we must set aside our faith.”

Addressing the actions of his opponents, who has alleged Mamd